Step #1: Let's do some background reading:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
This has an almost (ok it's too much!) overwhelming amount of information to think about and ponder as we consider the electoral college. Your job with this site? Read through at least 3 articles (they are written throughout the day!!), and play with some of the projected maps/polling data/etc to get a better sense as to what the analysts are thinking!
Step #2: Let's do some predicting! Now, let's look at some scenarios. All these scenarios play mostly with the 9 "swing states", those most in play in the upcoming election. You can use this map 2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: to 'turn' states blue (Obama) or Red (Romney). This will also set it up so that the 41 states that are considered either clearly for Obama or Romney are marked and the 9 swing states are in beige.
Your worksheet should be colored red and blue (red for Romney wins and blue for Obama) for each scenario. I have colored pencils on my desk.
CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI
Scenario #1: Obama wins CO, NV, NH, VA, IA, OH, WI Romney wins NC, FL
Who wins? What's the electoral college #s?
Scenario #2: Obama wins CO, NV, NH, VA Romney wins FL, IA, NC, OH, WI
Who wins? What's the electoral college #s?
Scenario #3: Obama wins IA, NV Romney wins NH, FL, VA, OH, CO, WI, NC
Who wins? What's the electoral college #s?
Scenario #4: What do YOU think? Be realistic, be thoughtful, and have reasoning to back it up.
What is the electoral college verdict? Turn in your complete worksheet and you may just get a prize if your prediction is the closest!!
This is kind of a random simulation, but this website goes through 10,000 possible scenarios each night to predict the likelihood of what will happen next Tues, Nov 6. If you refresh it will give you another possible (not necessarily probable) scenario. Scroll down to see the electoral college numbers.
http://www.270towin.com/simulation/
If you have extra time you can read through some additional commentary on the election via these sites:
If you have extra time you can read through some additional commentary on the election via these sites:
CNN : CNN has a reputation of being more favorable to Democratic candidates. Look for that perspective as you examine what they focus on and how they do it. This gets you to the home page, click on the politics tab for more coverage.
Fox News: Fox News has a reputation of being more favorable to Republican candidates. Look for that perspective as you examine what they focus on and how they do it. his gets you to the home page, click on the politics tab for more coverage.
Politico: This website has daily coverage of a lot of political stories. For good and for bad, the sight covers politics like a "sport"- the good part is that it is exciting, but the bad part is many of the articles focus more on the strategy and consequences of things going on rather than going in depth on the issues themselves.
CSPAN: Lots of video andtext coverage here from the cable channel that covers political news. It can be fairly in depth--look at the categories at the bottom of the main page.
